{
  "name": "DN Agentic Internet 2030 Scenario Matrix",
  "version": "1.1",
  "publishedAt": "2026-11-02",
  "evidenceType": "editorial-scenario-planning-not-prediction",
  "inputScale": {
    "0": "weak or low",
    "1": "growing, partial or medium",
    "2": "strong, portable or high"
  },
  "outputScale": "Independent support points, 0 to 6 per scenario. They do not sum to 100, are not probabilities, and are not market-share estimates.",
  "coefficients": "DN-authored heuristic: primary driver weight 2, secondary driver weight 1. Not statistically fitted.",
  "defaultInputs": {
    "open": 1,
    "closed": 1,
    "reg": 1,
    "decent": 1,
    "frag": 1,
    "id": 1
  },
  "defaultOutputs": {
    "open": 3,
    "closed": 3,
    "regulated": 3,
    "decentralized": 3,
    "fragmented": 3
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "open",
      "name": "Open",
      "primaryDriver": "open",
      "secondaryDriver": "id",
      "formula": "2 * open + id",
      "boundary": "Open tools do not prove portable authorization, memory or billing."
    },
    {
      "id": "closed",
      "name": "Closed",
      "primaryDriver": "closed",
      "secondaryDriver": "open",
      "formula": "2 * closed + (2 - open)",
      "boundary": "Integrated platforms may still expose open protocols."
    },
    {
      "id": "regulated",
      "name": "Regulated",
      "primaryDriver": "reg",
      "secondaryDriver": "id",
      "formula": "2 * reg + id",
      "boundary": "Actual duties depend on jurisdiction, role, use case and application date."
    },
    {
      "id": "decentralized",
      "name": "Decentralized",
      "primaryDriver": "decent",
      "secondaryDriver": "id",
      "formula": "2 * decent + id",
      "boundary": "Open payments do not establish permissionless access or usable dispute remedies."
    },
    {
      "id": "fragmented",
      "name": "Fragmented",
      "primaryDriver": "frag",
      "secondaryDriver": "id",
      "formula": "2 * frag + (2 - id)",
      "boundary": "Fragmentation can coexist with common technical standards."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Scenarios overlap and can coexist within the same business.",
    "No measured adoption, independently tested platform portability or forecast calibration.",
    "A zero support score is not a zero probability.",
    "The 2030 date is a planning horizon, not a predicted transition date."
  ],
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://modelcontextprotocol.io/specification/2026-07-28",
      "reviewedAt": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://a2a-protocol.org/latest/blog/2026/08/27/a-new-chapter-for-a2a-joining-the-agentic-ai-foundation/",
      "reviewedAt": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/regulatory-framework-ai",
      "reviewedAt": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://docs.x402.org/core-concepts/http-402",
      "reviewedAt": "2026-11-02"
    }
  ]
}